Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The NL Central Division

Baseball and Relativity



You can't hit what you can't see. - Walter Johnson

Since I'm sure ever other blogger/news site on the planet will be closely following the hubub surrounding the Clemens/McNamee HGH circus, I've decided to plug on with my divisional breakdown and to completely ignore the events that are disrupting attention that should be given to more interesting aspects of the sport.

The National League's Central Division

Despite being the largest division in baseball, the NL Central has the dubious honour this year to be considered the worst. While the AL West is sporting some of baseball's worst teams it is the NL Central that, this year, seem to lack a clear cut powerhouse. There are upsides on every squad, with the exception of the Pirates, but no single team seems poised to emerge as a potential World Series candidate. The Brewers have the firepower, but they dwindled down the stretch and they cannot count on their pitching to bail out their offense as the season goes on. The Cardinals, a mere shadow of their World Series team from two seasons ago, have shipped off most of their big name talent and will be forced to deal with injury woes from most of their remaining stars, Albert Pujols included. The Cubs, eternally damned as the Red Sox once were, have once again made some intriguing moves but don't present a compelling playoff threat. That being said...

The Division's Best: Chicago Cubs



Despite what I have just said, the Cubs are shaping up to be the best team in the division by a slim margin. Even without an outbreak season by young Felix Pie the Cubs have one of the better outfields in baseball with the addition of Japanese superstar Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano. Combine that with an above average offensive infield and a serviceable rotation and we can almost forget that their bullpen is slight lacking.

Key Players:
Derek Lee: He's not likely to repeat his 2005 numbers ever again but expect Lee to at least repeat his 2007 showing. In the instance he can improve on 2007 Lee would once again be an elite 1B.

Kerry Wood: Years spent waiting for Wood to become an outright superstar have produced no results. With Mark Prior gone Wood has the opportunity to emerge as a force in the bullpen, sweetening his legacy slightly after the demise of the once feared young tandem of which he was one half.

The last two members of the rotation: After Big Z, Rich Hill and Ted Lilly the Cubs need a couple of young arms to win 12-15 and post sub 4.00 eras if they want to barnstorm the NL and make it to the World Series.

The Worst: Pittsburgh Pirates

Freddy Sanchez

Mail it in. If the Pirates were playing in any other division in baseball they would be a lock to lose 100 games this year. In fact, they may do that anyways. Their only salvation lies in that they will play the majority of their games against the weak Central division against opponents such as the Astros and the Reds. There is no redeemer on the Pirate's 2008 squad. Jack Wilson is aging rapidly at 31, Matt Morris figures to be their ace and Jason Bay wants out. That equates to an abysmal season in the once grand confines of Pittsburgh Pennsylvania. Unless the team can seriously rebuild like its Western counterparts with meaningful rookies or Willie Stargell comes out of retirement in top form the Pirates stand to be the worst team in baseball. Yes, far worse in fact than the Royals. There is little use in breaking down the key players for a team as bad as this one.

Watch Out For: Milwaukee Brewers



The Brew Crew did what baseball analysts had been predicting for a number of seasons: they burst out of their miserable multi year slump and became a force in the National League. With their youth movement, lead by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, amongst the best in baseball the Brewers figure to compete until they lose their players to free agency. While their offense is wonderful and they added depth by signing the dependable Mike Cameron the Brewers lack dependable pitching and an offensively capable catcher. On staff they have a number of pitchers such as Jeff Suppan and David Riske who can contribute but due to injury their ace, Ben Sheets, has struggled to play the sort of role people come to expect from a young, talented pitcher such as himself.

Key Players:
Ben Sheets: Sheets may be the deciding factor in a playoff appearance for the Brewers. If he stays healthy he is a certifiable ace. If he falls ill, which is all too likely given his track record, don't expect for Milwaukee to find enough pitching elsewhere to cope.

Rickie Week: Still young, Weeks has a lot of room to grow. While he's in the right environment as a young, budding star Weeks will have to exhibit more discipline and better work habits to emerge into an elite 2B.

Ryan Braun/Prince Fielder: Move over Ramirez/Ortiz. The new lights-out duo in MLB will be wowing crowds and filling seats in Miller Park. Moving Braun into left field, where his defense will be less of a liability, is a wise move. Expect combined HR/RBI totals for these two to be around 100/230 with good averages and a couple of stolen bases increasing their value.



DB