Easter Woes

Baseball and Relativity

Easter has come again and while Christ is risen and the sins of the world redeemed, all is not well in the land of Toronto baseball. From the top pitcher Casey Jansen, a promising young arm who was vying for a spot in the rotation, has been shut down for the season. With Jesse Litsch continuing his 2007 success Toronto doesn't need to be too worried but recount Jansen's impressive bullpen numbers and realize that we were much better with then we will be without him.

The second issue; Reed Johnson has been released. Johnson, a fan favorite, was aware of the potential for release when the Jays tendered Shannon Stewart a minor league contract. Johnson, who's spring statistics have been much better than Stewart's (Johnson is batting 60 points higher), is a fan favorite and will be missed. Expect fan support to be quite low for Stewart if he falters early in the season despite his past history with the club.

The third issue; Don't lament the loss of Glaus. Like I've said before, even if he does well in St. Louis keep in mind that he left Toronto due to foreseeable perpetual injury. That being said, Rolen is already ailing from a fractured hand that was a result of a freak fielding practice accident.

God, please help the Jays. They need it - hours from the start of the MLB season and there's nothing but injury on the horizon.

DB

Fantasy Update: Trades!

Baseball and Relativity

There's a precise art to completing good trades in fantasy baseball. This week I've been trying to exploit my gamut of middle of the pack pitching to prey on friends who have a couple of extra sluggers but a less than stellar starting rotation. The results, as of yet, have been uninspiring. This is less because the trades I'm offering aren't good and more because inexperienced fantasy baseballers often develop a trade allergy.

The trade allergy finds its roots on the manager's fear of being burned. Nobody wants to trade me a bonafied slugger as they fear that his production, if substantial, may cause regret down the road.

Here are some tips for trading (based on a head to head Yahoo! styled league).

1. 4000 rbi's will not win you the SB category: As I have said before you need to develop a balanced squad to compete in fantasy sports. That means that if you have a lot of one thing, trade some of it to get another. This is most notable in HR/RBI/win biases. Most inexperienced players can't see beyond the more prominant stats to realize the value of trading Manny Ramierez to pick up a pitcher with a low ERA and Shane Victorino who will steal bases and will not hurt your avg./OBP.

2. Take chances: If you're making a trade get the other guy to throw in a low risk/high reward player like Jack Cust or Justin Upton to accentuate the deal. If the low risk player doesn't pan out its no real loss. If he does and the trade's primary chip flops then you can at least salvage your managerial dignity!

3. Get trades done early: Don't wait until your overachievers have lost value or until mid season when people aren't paying enough attention. Get the trading going while people are still interested!

4. Pay attention to the experts: They'll let you know way before you recognize yourself if one of your players is hot/cold. Despite the occasional mistakes experts are much better at predicting player trends than World Series winners.

5. Stay away from basement dwellers: In my opinion going after an Oakland Athletic, a Royal or a Pirate is just foolish. Take a lesser guy on a much better squad - better run support and offensive production improves stats.

DB

Blue Jays' Chances

Take me out to the ball game!!!

In a recent article the fine young gentlemen at Fox Sports opined as to whether or not the Blue Jays have a chance at making the playoffs this year. I felt a certain geographical necessity to comment on this issue, not to mention that I have slotted them as my wild card choice.

The biggest issue that is present for the Blue Jays, that which stands between them and a playoff appearance, is health. I won't spend too much space recapping the Blue Jays awful injury issues of 2007 (they lost around 950 man games to injury) but I will note that they still managed to finish above .500. What does that mean? Essentially with their 2008 roster, which is slightly improved and should benefit from players bouncing back from difficult statistical seasons this year past, the Jays are fairly confident that they can compete for a playoff position. While I'm unconvinced that they will win the East over the Red Sox the Blue Jays may be able to capitalize on a weak Western division and a highly competitive yet self deprecating Central. There are some key areas of concern though;

1. The trade - If the Jays intend to compete they will have to watch the trading block to pick up a big arm/bat for a playoff run if they are in such a place after the all star break. Its unlikely that a playoff bound team sports starters like Jesse Litch or fielders such as Shannon Stewart/Reed Johnson bar a renaissance or break out year. I suggest that the Jays either throw their name into the Joe Blanton sweepstakes or look to pluck a Konerko/Dunn calibre player from a team who finds themselves hopeless in July.

2. The Coach - I'm simply not a fan. He's had two altercation with players that have spilled into the public arena and makes questionable decisions with his bullpen. What's more puzzling is his inability to break out of the big show American League slug fest and allow his faster players to run more. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios should have 20-30 sbs a year. Running is key because it adds stress to the opposing pitchers. C'mon Gibbons!

3. The Catcher - Greg Zaun as your number one catcher is only acceptable because of how hard it is to find catching these days. He is only acceptable as a hitter and can't throw out runners. Essentially that makes him a catch-mate.


Here's to a 2008 playoff birth in Toronto.
DB

Fantasy Baseball Woes

He who drafted Evan Longoria in round 9, drafter wrong.




Baseball and Relativity



For a second, let's put aside the real world and talk about the planet of fantasy baseball. Regardless of how often I have won my baseball pool (2 of the last three years, with a narrow second place finish to compliment) I am rarely happy with how I draft. I get caught up in all the same trends as other people do; participating in panick stricken positional runs, drafting with my heart, not being fully prepared when the player I've targetted for the given round is scooped up one pick before and drafting sleepers so early that their 'sleeper status' is relatively voided. In order to combat these tendencies I've compiled an ever growing tip list for would be-fantasy baseball kings.



1. In the first five rounds draft the best player available regardless of position. You may end up with 2 or even 3 of the same position but think long term; one can act as your utility and the other a trading chip (both more valuable than reaching!)



2. That being said, don't draft a pitcher in those first five rounds (even if his name is Peavy or Santanna.) I know many will argue with me but I argue that beyond the odd mega season, which Santanna may have legitimately, most pitchers fantasy stats are rather comparable and a large chunk of pitchers exist in the middle rounds of a well run league. On the other hand NO good middle infielders do (other than sleeper candidates and Aaron Hill.)



3. On the topic of pitchers - fill your bench with them! FILL! If you're carrying more than one extra batsmen once the season starts you're crazy unless you're in an update once a week pool. Batters play every day, for the most part. AND if they do not play it is rare that you will know far enough in advance to adjust your roster. Carry one extra stud but realize that you will not sit David Ortiz for a lesser player on any given day. If one of your players is hurt move him to the IR and pick up a replacement. If a player is slumping drop them. Pitchers only pitch once every five days so carrying a surplus of servicable starters will help you boost your IP, wins and K's (sometimes as the expense of era and ops).



4. Balance, balance, balance: A team made up of huge slow average beastly sluggers will sink you. The most underated and difficult stat to procur is the stolen base for batters. So draft at least one speedster. With regards to pitching draft for k's and low eras - big win pitchers who have strong offensive support will not win you pools.



5. On the other hand its always useful to have powerhouse squads represented on your team. Mike Lowell would not have produced 120 rbi in 2007 had it not been for the high team ops. of the Boston Red Sox. This goes double for pitchers - if you don't have crafty, versataile arms you may as well draft pitchers who throw for winning teams. Contradiction noted.



6. Don't get caught in that run: If there's a run in closers and you're reaching for one to ensure yourself saves you're making a mistake. Draft quality players in every round and realize that with waiver wire/trade/sleeper persistance its very likely that you can grab saves (etc) in later rounds or ever part way into the season when players flourish/falter.



7. More balance: On the other hand its not too much of a reach to descend your draft strategy a few spots to pick up a good SS when you should be drafting a that OF you had your eye on. Its much easier to pick up fantasy studs at OF or 1B than it is to pick up middle infielders or 3B.



8. Prepare: The best drafted team will either be the prepared person or the random guy who picked players based on how pretty their names were. Regrettable but true on the latter. I subscribe to the tier system and I back that up with a list of young players/sleepers who I will resolve myself to pick in the case I can't get a premier position player.



9. Remember that your team today will be radically different than your team tomorrow. The person who picked Adrian Gonzales up in mid April last year laughed all the way to his championship. The person who dropped Chris Shelton in May two years ago, or even better, traded him early did the same. Pay attention to the waiver wire and injury reports, notice trends, don't be afraid to make moves.



10. Finally, cheat your friends. Trades are all about foresight and dishonesty. Very few trades that looked even on the day they were made ended up so at the end of the year. Last season I made one bad trade and two great trades. The moral of the story; trade trade trade - not only does it keep the pool fresh, but it adds to the wonderful sense of competition that fantasy sports foster.



PAX
DB

Take that New York City

The Absurd



According to our friends at Fox Sports the NHL is coming to Yankee Stadium http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7896146/Report:-NHL-may-play-Yankee-Stadium-finale



In a bid to recreate this year's popular NHL Winter Classic (played in Buffalo in very cold temperatures) the New York Rangers have been vying to play their last season game at Yankee Stadium in April. Without consulting sources to learn the specific plans I have to question the potential for catastrophe in playing hockey on a man-made (sic) rink in the middle of April.


Fans are being asked to lower their body temperature and to pack ice packs in their arm pits and genital area prior to the puck drop.

DB

Up to Date

Considering that I took the better part of the last three weeks off I have decided to forgo the tedious process of breaking down the devisions (especially with our high level of readership) so I'm going to push through and post more often/briefer posts on day to day topics.

Nevertheless:

American Central:
Best: Tigers
Worst: Royals
Watch Out For: Indians

American East:
Best: Red Sox
Worst: Orioles
Watch Out For: Blue Jays


Its not as though I would wager on the Jays, I'm just going to stay blue and send up the big hope for the Jays to stay healthy and depend upon a couple of young arms to defeat the Yankees.

DB